3:00    

Arrival and check-in

3:30

Field trip: Wildlife and Habitat Project – Swan Research Project Airlie Campus

6:00

Dinner

7:30

Welcome and Introductions  Tony Janetos, Joint Global Change Research Institute University of Maryland and John Wiens, The Nature Conservancy

7:45

Meeting Objectives: Developing the framework for integrated thresholds Tony Janetos and John Wiens
Overview and Goals

9:00 – 10:15 

Panel “Establishing the Thresholds ‘Playing Field’— Concepts and Context”
Introduction: Tom Lovejoy, president, the Heinz Center
Chair:  John Wiens
Panelists: Ed Miles, University of Washington, School of Marine Affairs; Peter Groffman, Institute of Ecosystem Studies; Roger Pulwarty, NOAA Climate Program Office, and Rebecca Shaw, The Nature Conservancy- California

10:15 – 10:45

Break

10:45 –12:30

Plenary Discussion Establishing the Thresholds ‘Playing Field’— Concepts and Context

12:30 –1:30

Lunch

1:30 – 2:30

Panel presentation and Discussion “Where have we been?” Learning from well-understood cases of threshold responses (‘Type 1’) where both physical phenomenon and management/policy response are well-documented
Chair: Jane Leggett, Congressional Research Service

• Peruvian Anchovy (Kenny Broad, University of Miami)
• Mesquite invasion in New Mexico (Brandon Bestlemeyer, New Mexico State University)

2:30 – 3:30

Plenary Discussion  -- “Where have we been?” Type 1 Cases

3:30 – 4:00

Break

4:00 – 5:30

Panel Presentation and Discussion “Where are we now?” Type 2 Threshold Cases  (Accumulating or accelerating change is resulting in large or sudden changes important to management and adaptive capacity)
Panel chair: Virginia Burkett, National Wetlands Research Center of the U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Department of Interior
Session I:

• Woodland forest/tree die-off: US west (David Breshears, University of Arizona) and African Sahel (Patrick Gonzalez, The Nature Conservancy)
• Drought: Colorado River (Roger Pulwarty, NOAA Climate Program Office) and Columbia River (Ed Miles, University of Washington, School of Marine Affairs)

5:30

Adjourn

6:30

Dinner

8:30 – 9:00

Report back ‘Concepts and Context’ and Type 1

9:00 – 11:00

Panel Presentation and Discussion “Where are we now?” Type 2 Threshold Cases
Session II:

• Coral Reefs (Phil Kramer, The Nature Conservancy)
• Bark Beetles (Mike Bradley, CANFOR)
• Sea-level rise: North Carolina Coast, Albemarle Peninsula (Jeff DeBlieu, The Nature Conservancy—North Carolina)

11:00 – 11:30

Break

11:30 – 2:30

Break-Out Sessions (and working lunch):

2:30 - 3:30

Plenary Discussion of Break-out Sessions

3:30

Adjourn

6:00

Dinner

7:00

Report back: Type 2

7:30 – 8:30

Panel Presentation and Discussion of Type 3 Cases, “Things that go bump in the night”
Panel Chair: Jerry Melillo, The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Lab

• Ocean Acidification (Richard Feely, NOAA, Pacific Marine Environmental Lab)
• Terrestrial Carbon Sink Capacity (Lisa Dilling, Visiting Fellow, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder CO)

9:00 – 10:00

Plenary Discussion  -- “Things that go bump in the night” Type 3 Cases

10:00 -12:00

Key insights:  What have we learned over the past three days that advances understanding of thresholds within the context of response and management, and/or reveals new classes of resource management or policy information needs that the scientific community should respond to?

12:00 – 1:00

Lunch

1:00 – 3:00

Meeting outcomes and next steps:  How can we build a process that seeks to recognize and improve understanding of thresholds in the context of existing and future coping strategies? How can we best organize and advance a process of engagement with resource/conservation managers and policy-makers? What does such a process look like and what are the desired outcomes?